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Pearson's rule in action- part 2
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Pearson's rule in action- part 2
Here's a hand from recent play at the club:

Dealer W

none vulnerable

 

 

N

W               E

S

 

♠ A 6 4 2

♥ 10 4 3

♦ K 6 3 2

♣ A 10

The auction:
South West North East
  pass pass pass
?       
 
What's your choice?  a) pass  b) 1NT  c) 1♦  d) 1♠ 
Pearson's Rule, or the Rule of 15, applies only when there have been 3 passes to you, and you have the choice of whether to bid or not. You add your number of high-card points to the number of spades you hold, and if the answer is 15 or more, you should theoretically bid. What's the logic behind this? Well you could settle for a score of 0 by passing, and probably score something around 50%, beating those who go minus and losing to those who go plus. Your sole intention is therefore to get a plus score of any description, and your chances of winning a competitive auction are better when you hold some spade length, as spades outrank the other suits.
As to the choice of bid, you should be looking for something that gets you into, then out of, the auction as quickly and cheaply as possible. 1NT would be ok as long as partner doesn't put you into 2NT, with a risk of going minus. Similarly, 1S risks getting to a non-making 2NT or 3S. The best option is probably to open 1D and pass whatever partner bids (even 1H or 2C). However, all the options have some validity, and therefore are all rewarded on this occasion!
PASS = 4
1NT = 9
1S = 6
1D = 10
0 0 0 0 0 0
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