 I did not realise that I have being loading up hands onto this web-site for three years now! Some have been head-scratchers & some have been simple ones. I try to follow the plan that Bridge is for all, and I will try & continue providing a mix of problems, to entertain you.
This time, I found the basis of this problem on the internet. The bidding goes as shown, and we must take note of the bidding sequence. The opening leads comes which is 3 ♠, and we try & plan our play.
We think that we could be struggling for tricks, so ducking the opening lead should guarantee two tricks for us, so we play 8 ♠, to which West plays 7 ♠. Do we play Q or 2 ♠? It actually makes no difference, as we are always going to win two ♠ tricks, and it does not give us any extra entries. Declarer here decides to play Q ♠ at this trick. Now declarer is starting to get a picture of East's hand. We now know that East definitely holds K & J ♠ and presumably K & Q ♥ (their bidding would suggest this). So they could also hold K ♦ & Q ♣, one of them, or potentially neither - we just don't know. Here declarer decides, with four missing ♣ cards, to play for the drop. A small ♣ to the K produces nothing startling, and J ♣ return (playing 6 ♣ will block the suit), with West playing Q ♣ & dummy A ♣, which looks good until East plays 4 ♠. Disaster! Making the contract is now an impossibility. Although you still hold a small ♣ as an entry to dummy to cash all those ♣ tricks, West still holds 10 ♣ to scupper this play. Now although you can play a small ♣, it will lose, and West will then play a small ♥ to extinguish your last hopes, when East holds not only K & Q ♥, but also 10 ♥, so no ♥ trick can come along to help. The only thing that can be salvaged here is how many tricks you take. You can go two tricks down if the ♦ finesse works, or go three tricks down when either it does not work or you don't try it.
Can we do anything better?
This is a situation where West is always going to take a ♣ trick with their holding of Q, 10 & 2 ♣. The answer to the problem is at trick 2 to lead a small ♣ from hand towards the J ♣ in dummy, not caring if it wins or not. This works if Q ♣ is in East, but also if West holds 3 no ♣ (as above). This is called the "Safety Play", because when it loses (as it does here), it guarantees the extra 3 no ♣ tricks in dummy (no matter which card West decides to play). Now, whatever card West decides to play, declarer can win that trick in hand, and play K & then 6 ♣ towards dummy. You will again end up having to decide whether to take the ♦ finesse, but this time it is for 9 or 10 tricks. That is a very big difference!
You may have heard the expression "8 Ever, 9 Never" which refers to the question of whether you should finesse or not? Ever refers to having an odd number of cards outstanding & Never refers to an even number outstanding. The "betting odds" suggest that with an even number missing, you should play for the drop & with an odd number of cards missing, that you should finesse. Well, Bridge has a funny way of sometimes turning things upside-down, and this is one of those cases. Would you have got it correct?
Q) Did you work out the shape of the East hand? (4 x ♠, the opening lead of 3 ♠ would suggest this, and 2 ♠ is in dummy, 5 x ♥, suggested by the over-call, 1 x ♣, this is apparent by the third round of play, when they discard & 3 x ♦, MATHS!)
A) It turns out that K ♦ was in the East hand.
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