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Losing Trick Count
Losing Trick Count
This topic is not just applicable to Acol; it can be used in any system.
While it is not even necessary to have both partners using it, it is best that they both play that direct
raises to game are limited to 12 hcp at most.
Traditionally the raising structure is:
Single raise = 6 – 9 high card points
Jump raise = 10 – 11 high card points
Game raise = 13 – 15 high card points
We know that distribution is also a factor which governs the strength of a hand, and several ways of
assessing its value are on offer (points for shortage, points for length for example).
The LTC evaluates both the high card content of a hand and the distribution in one go.
It is also simple (which makes it good for me).
It is only utilised when a major fit has been found.


Partner opens 1H     and you hold:
 1.    Kx         2.    Kxx        3.    Kx    4.    Kxx
        Qxxx            Qxxx             Qxxx        Qxxxxx
        Qxxx            Qxx               Qxxx        Qxx
       Axx               Axx               xxx           x
       (11pts)            (11pts)        (7pts)      (7pts)

With each of these hands you have 4 card support or better, so you know that hearts will make an adequate trump suit. You are going to raise partner's suit immediately - but to what level?

The L.T.C. is a fairly accurate method of assessing the level to which you should raise once a major suit fit comes to light, and opener is also better placed when it is his turn to bid again.    It is most useful when you have 12 points or less and it is only accurate for raises up to the four level (if a slam seems possible then the more usual treatments are advisable e.g. Blackwood, D.G.R., cue-bidding, etc).
The idea is that you (responder) count the number of losers your hand contains and add 7 losers (this assumes your partner has a 7 loser hand, a minimum opening hand usually does), subtract this total from 18 and that tells you how high to raise.  Opener can also re-evaluate after a raise by adding his losers to the number shown by responder and subtracting from 18. So if partner raises your 1H to 3H (showing 8 losers) then with 7 losers opener adds 7 to 8 and takes from 18 to give 3 – the level at which you are at, which is as expected. With a 6 loser hand the calculation would give 4 and a raise to game is in order.

COUNTING LOSERS
Each suit has a maximum of 3 losers and, in each suit, you count:

1.    No losers for a void, singleton A, doubleton AK or AKQ
2.    One loser for a singleton, Ax, Kx and AJ10
3.    Two losers for any other doubleton (even QJ)
4.    One loser for each missing high honour (A, K or Q) in a 3 card or longer suit.

In addition you make the following adjustments:
1.    Qxx(x...) is counted as three losers unless
1.    it is the proposed trump suit
2.    the suit has been bid by your partner
3.    the Q is supported by the J (not doubleton)
4.    Qxx in one suit is 'balanced' by an Axx or better in another suit.

2.    Subtract one loser if your trump support is 5 cards or longer or very good 4 card e.g. AKJx, KQJx, AQJx, AKQx, Kxxxx, 10xxxxx

Hand 1. above contains 1 loser in spades and 2 each in the other three suits (the Q of diamonds is balanced by the A of clubs) i.e. 7 losers. 18- (7+7) = 4; therefore raise 1H to 4H.
Hand 2. has 8 losers so 18-(8+7) = 3; raise to 3H
Hand 3. has 8 losers and an unbalanced Q. 18-(8+1+7) = 2; raise to 2H
Hand 4. has 7 losers; unbalanced Q is offset by 6 card trump support so 18-(7+7); raise to 4H.

Opposite Hand 2. say opener has        QJx             i.e. 7 losers and so he will pass a raise to 3H.
                                                         Axxxx              With a 6 loser hand he goes onto game.
                                                           Kx                      
                                                            Kxx       
One other factor is the importance of 'key features' i.e. Aces and Kings; with 2 aces and a king any unbalanced hand is likely to be too strong to raise to game immediately. Therefore an immediate game raise should deny these “key features”, such a hand being developed by other means.

Examples on the LTC

1.    Axxxx    2.    Qxxx    3.    Qxxx        4.    AJxx    
       x                   xxx              xx                    x    
       xx                 Axx             Axx                 Axxx    
      Kxxxx           Kxx             Kxxx               Q10xx    
                                    
5.    AJ10x    6.    AJxx    7.    KJxx           In e.g.s. 1 to 7, partner has opened the
       xx                  xx               Jx                bidding with 1S. What is your
       xxx                Axx            AQ10xx       response ?
      KQxx            KQxx         Kx               
                                   
    1. Raise to 4S (LTC = 2, 1, 2, 2 = 7)        2. Raise to 2S (LTC = 2, 3, 2, 2 = 9)
    3. Raise to 3S (LTC = 2, 2, 2, 2 = 8)        4. Raise to 4S (LTC = 2, 1, 2, 2 = 7) Q balanced by A
    5. Raise to 4S (LTC = 1, 2, 3, 1 = 7)        6. Bid 2C (too strong for an LTC raise)
    7. Bid 2D intending to follow with 4S
                                   
    Opener can also use the LTC (assuming a 9 loser hand if no other indication), he adds his losers to partner’s and takes from 18, as shown in some of the following examples:
                                   
8.    x             1H - 2H    9.    x           1H  -  3H    10.    AJ10xx    1S - 2D
       AK109xx        ?             AK109x    ?                      KJ9x        2H - 3S
       Axxx                              AJxx                                 Ax                  ?
       Ax                                 Kxx                                   Jx   
                                   
11.    AQxx        1H - 1S    12.    AQxx    1H - 1S    13.    1S  -  2D    Jl0x
         KQJ10x        ?                    KQJ10x    ?                    2H  -  ?      KQx
        Axx                                      xx                                                     Al0xxx
        x                                          xx                                                     Jx
                                   
14.    AKxxx        1S - 2C    15.    1H - ?        AKQ10xx           
         AJxx           2H - 3S                               KQxx           
         xx                   ?                                      xx           
        Kx                                                           x           
                                   
     8. 5 losers (assume opposite 9 losers) and rich in controls (aces and kings). Raise to 4H
     9. 6 losers so raise to 4H. Responder is showing 8 losers.
    10. 6 losers so raise to 4S. Responder is showing 3 spades and an 8 loser hand.
    11. 5 losers (assume opposite 9 losers) and good source of tricks in hearts, bid 4S.
      Across from:
            Kxxxx
            xx
            xx
            xxxx
        4S will make given a fair wind – and he will have more values than that.
    12. 6 losers, and good concentrated values make this a raise to 3S. (assume opposite 9 losers)
    13. Responder recognises the 8 card major suit fit and with 8 losers bids 3S.
    14. 6 losers opposite 3 card support and 8 losers, so bid 4S.
    15. Only 14 hcp but 4 losers only and a great source of tricks. Bid 2S intending to bid 4H next.
   

Some Points to Emphasise

Holding 13 to 15 points and four card support for opener's major
- change the suit first and then raise to game.
(or, if opener (with his rebid) shows substantial extra strength, make a slam try).
e.g.     AKJ10xx        Qxxx
          Ax                   xx
          xx                   AK10xx
         Kxx                 Ax

    1S            2D
    3S            4C
    4H            6S
     P
The jump rebid shows 15-18 points and a good 6 card suit and is game forcing after a two level response. Responder cue-bids his club control and opener reciprocates in hearts. Responder bashes the Small slam (on a good day even the Grand will make).
 
The L.T.C. is only accurate to the four level.

While it also works for the minor suits it is rarely used because of the loss in accuracy at the five level. Also we always think about the Notrump game when we have game values and a minor suit fit.

Confucius he say:
Always view with a prejudiced eye all hands that have no ace (add a loser?)