Monday 2-3-2025

How high do we pre-empt? It’s all about the odds.

This weeks hand features a rare 9 card suit. The chances of this happening are around 1 in 2,700 so naturally discussions on what to do if you are dealt one are rare.

North will almost certainly start proceedings with 1H and now E has to decide how high they should bid in clubs.

When you pre-empt it is generally agreed that you don’t bid again (unless invited) so E should decide on the level of what will probably be their final bid.

There are several things to consider here.

First, how many tricks is E expecting to make in a club contract?

40% of the time their partner will hold 1 club.

That would leave three outstanding and the most likley split for these is 2-1. If that is the case then E will make all 9 clubs.

Next, the vunerabilty is such that E can afford to go 2 off doubled and still be in profit is S has most of the missing points and N/S can make a game.

Finally there is a chance that partner has a lot of the missing points and then 5C (or even 6C) could make.

(On the layout switch the JH for the JD and 6 clubs is makeable.)

Your bid may therefore pre-empt your partner and make it difficult for them to decide the best contract.

So how many clubs does E bid.

3C looks tame, suggests a 6 card suit and gives S the opportunity to bid 4H if they have the missing points.

Some E may have done this as two W players are in 3NT (fine if the overcall guarantees 2 of the top 3 honours as without the AC in dummy the contract looks doomed)

However 3NT makes as all 9 clubs come home and the JH does some work in preventing N/S setting up the hearts.

An overcall of 4C is OK but still allows S to raise to game, if they have the hand, but gives W a problem of whether to raise to 5C or not.

I think the best overcall is 5C which with expected distribution should go no more than 2 off (beating a potential N/S game) and will make if partner has the right cards.

As I don’t like having two bites of the cherry I would overcall 5C and see what happens.

This is where most E players have landed.

Two N players have doubled with their potential 3 tricks.

This looks risky as pre-emptive hands usually hold at least one singleton or void. and in this case turns a middle into a bottom.

In terms of the play of 5C everyone leads a heart (N has bid them), and after the AH (seeing the J from declarer)

N should cash AS as a second heart allows the QH to be a winner and declarers losing spades disappear on the QH and A K of diamonds making 12 tricks.

At pairs its not about defeating the contract but about holding declarer to as few tricks as possible.

Rember this deal, as it may be a long time before you see another 9 card suit. Having said that it would be hilarious if one pops up this Thursday online

(if you want to join us register on the link on this page) or next Monday. What are the odds!

Tip of the week.

It is usually best to decide how high you are happy to pre-empt and bid the hand once.

The analysis is my own opinion and you may well disagree. Always make sure you know your own system before you play.

Mark Rixon