When a game is in jeopardy of being canceled due to weather conditions an email will be sent and a notice posted on this website no later than 10 AM on the day of the game
Reservations will be accepted for NS or EW positions when received by email no later than midnight the night before the game. A confirming email will be sent the next morning. Any players making such a reservation but not arriving will have this privilege rescinded
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POCASSETT COUNTRY CLUB 24 Club House Drive Pocasset MA 02559
MONDAYS SEASONAL SEPTEMBER THROUGH EARLY JUNE
MONDAY & WEDNESDAY
FRIDAY 12:30 Centerville Masonic Lodge
SATURDAY 12:15 MASHPEE COA Open Pairs and 299'er
Margie Sullivan was awarded the Bermuda National Tourism Award for 22 years of arranging tours to Bermuda for the ACBL Regional there! Congrats, Margie!
UCBC SMOKING POLICY
PLAYER MUST PLAY THEIR OWN DUMMY CARDS PRIOR TO EXITING TO SMOKE.
IF THE ROUND IS CALLED AND 3 PLAYERS AWAIT THE RETURN OF THE FOURTH WHO IS OUTSIDE SMOKING THERE WILL BE A 3 MATCHPOINT PENALTY ASSESSED WHICH WILL DOUBLE ON EACH SUBSEQUENT INFRACTION
The Theory of Expected Holding
by Ken Camilleis
Many of the bids you make are a priori, which means without any knowledge of the contents of any of the other three hands at the table. Bridge is a game that involves taking calculated risks based on statistical probabilities of bad results. If a tactical action produces, say, fifteen good results and five poor ones, over the span of ten duplicate sessions, then that treatment is heavily favored. Some situations dictate a unilateral action where “you pays your money and you takes your chances.” Such bidding is based on the theory of expected holding (TEH.)
Preempts are a classic example of applying the TEH. Say you're in first seat white vs. red and you hold QTxxxx, xx, KJx, xx. There's actually a specific holding that you can “expect” partner (or either of the opponents) to have! Of course it will not be that exact holding, but the statistically most likely occurrence. Let's start with the spades. You hold six of them, which means there are seven you don't hold. These seven spades are divided some way among the three other players, so by dividing 7 by 3 you get 2-1/3, which means you “expect” partner to hold 2-1/3 spades. So you round this down to two, which means you likely have an 8-card spade fit. Now count the high card points in the spade suit. You have only 2, which means there are 8 HCP in the A, K and J distributed among the other three hands. Divide 8 by 3 and you get 2-2/3 so you “expect” partner to hold 2-2/3 HCP which rounds up to 3. So guess what … partner's most likely holding in spades, assuming a nonbiased random shuffle, is Kx! Now apply this reasoning to the other three suits and you map partner's “expected” hand to be the likes of Kx, QJxx, Qxx, Kxxx. As you are missing 34 HCP, diving 34 by 3 leaves 11-1/3 HCP for your partner which may include an ace and one less king and/or queen. So the opponents probably don't have game. Do you pass as dealer?
If you pass, your LHO may be in position to open the bidding, and by the time it comes back to you both opponents may have exchanged a wealth of information and it may not be profitable to enter the auction at that point. However, if you open with 2S, three people have to start their communications at the three level or with a takeout double that will likely let you off the hook. You are taking a two-to-one (66.67%) chance that the one person who will be inconvenienced by your preempt isn't your partner. If you catch partner with void, AKJx, Axxxx, KQTx once and something in the neighborhood of KJxx, x, Qxxxx, xxx or KJ, Axx, AQxx, KQxx two other times, you get two matchpoints for every one you give. Even the first hand may not be so bad if partner holds his nose and passes as 2S may make if the spades break 4-3. The logic behind TEH also applies to the tough decision an opponent needs to make over a direct preempt when neither his LHO nor partner have made a call.
The TEH can also be extended to defense, especially with regard to making an opening lead when the opponents have exchanged little information (such as 1S-2S-4S or 1NT-3NT.) Say your long suit is QTxxxx … you know what to expect from pard – Kx! If the lead goes into declarer's AKJ, that's life, but application of the TEH over the long term may produce many more good results than bad ones.
Top Percentage UCBC Games
High Scores 84+ Average
Dick Dugas & Jody Foley
Stephen Rzewski & Margie Sullivan
Steven Salidas & Donald Robertson
Kathleen Denton & Barbara Witt
Ken Camilleis & Bill Noyes
Jody Foley & Arthur Krupnick
James Tullis & Robert Hickey
Bradford Barnes & Suzanne Pratley
Pat McDevitt & Margie Sullivan
Steven Fortunato & Alex Bresler
Arthur Krupnick & Bruce Emond
Ken Camilleis & Bradford Barnes
Angela & Sam Frohlich
Martin Koski & James Swan, Jr.
Robert Hickey & Mickey MacMillan
Robert Minotti & Edward Mitchell
Bill Noyes & Don MacMillan
Rita Whitney & Ginny O'Toole
Ann Swaim & Marilyn Beardsley
Bernice Goldstein & Donald Weiss
James Butler & Dick Dugas
Ramona Marrier & Joe Marrier Jr.
The Midrank Method of Nonparametric Statistical Sampling
As duplicate bridge players, did you know that the process of “matchpointing” scores on a given board has a scientific name for it? This process is referred to as the midrank method of statistical sampling. Here's how it works:
Let n = the number of times a board is played. When ranking scores that are all distinct, the highest score receives n-1 matchpoints and the lowest score gets zero matchpoints, and every other score tabulated would be ranked according to its relative algebraic position. However, what happens when two (or more) scores are the same? In that case, one half-matchpoint will be assigned for each score that the score in calculation ties. Say a deal is played six times and the results are +140, +110, +110, +100, -50 and -100. The +140 would get 5 matchpoints and the +100 would get 2 matchpoints but the two scores that tie at +110 would receive the midrank (the midpoint value) between 2 and 5 which is 3.5.
If more than two scores tie, the calculated score gets 1/2 matchpoint for each score it ties. Suppose a board is played 13 times and 12 of the scores are +650 and the other is 680. The 680 gets 12 matchpoints and all the 650s get 5.5, which is 11/2, the midrank of the remaining 12 scores of 650.
Every now and then, the same result occurs across an entire board, in which case everyone who played it would be awarded (n-1)/2 matchpoints, which is the exact average score for the board. If a deal were played nine times, and everyone achieved the same score, the midrank value of 4 matchpoints would be assigned to all pairs.
Probability of getting dealt a hand with all of the same suit
The number of combinations of n items taken r at at time is denoted nCr, calculated as follows: nCr = n! / ((n-r)! r!)
A bridge deal consists of the process of taking combinations of 52 cards 13 at a time and distributing them around the table. So let n = 52 and r = 13. We have:
52C13 = 52!/39!13! = 52*51* ...*40 / 13! =
3954242643911239680000 / 6227020800 = 635013559600
13/52 * 12/51 * ... * 1/40 = the probability of all of any particular suit (spades, hearts, diamonds or clubs) = 1 in 635,013,559,600
Divide this by four to get the probabilty of this for any suit, which is 1 in
That's one hundred fifty-eight billion, seven hundred fifty-three million, three hundred eighty-nine thousand nine hundred
2014 High Scores 299ers Games
Carolyn McNaught & Betsy Stegeman
2014 High Scores 84+ Average
James Butler & Jo Ann Kriger
Richard Katzeff & Peter Crossley
Jody Foley & Thomas Cibotti
Ramona Marrier & Joe Marrier Jr
Peter Crossley & Bernard Garbose
Overall High Scores 84+ Average
GOLF FOURSOME WINNERS - GAIL THOMPSON, CAROL SWARTZ, MICKEY MAC MILLAN, STEVE COLMAN
BRIDGE WINNERS - DICK DUGAS AND RICHARD KATZEFF
FIRST OVERALL GOLF/BRIDGE WINNER - "COWBOY" RICHARD KATZEFF
BETSEY STEGEMAN & LYN MC NAUGHT
STEPHEN RZEWSKI, MARGIE SULLVAN, GINNY O'TOOLE AND STEVE SALIDAS
Mark and Susan Aquino, Margie Sullivan and Steve Rzewski=
ANITA JOHNSTON & CHANOK CHALIFOUX (PHOTO BOMBED BY ALEX BRESLER)
First overall Al Koski and Brad Barnes
First overall C flight Bob and Sue James
Best Single Costume
1st Place NS
Best Costume Pair
Linda Ahrens, Joe Brouillard, Pam Cooney and Muriel Golden
Carolyn Noble and her Yummy Fruit Tray
Anita Johnston and Chanok Chalifoux the "greenest" pair and Cowboy Katzeff the "greenest" single player
Jody Foley, Cowboy Katzeff, Pete Crossley and Tom Cibotti
Chanok Chalifoux with her luscious chocolate-dipped strawberries!
Muriel Golden with her delicious Bavarian with fresh raspberries!
The ultimate purpose of the Z-T policy is to create a much more pleasant atmosphere in our games. We are attempting to eradicate unacceptable behavior in order to make the game of bridge more enjoyable for all.
Below are some examples of commendable behavior, which, while not required, will significantly contribute to the improved atmosphere:
We enforce the zero tolerance policy as suggested by ACBL
The following list shows some examples of behavior which will not be tolerated:
If a player at the table behaves in an unacceptable manner, the director should be called immediately. Annoying behavior, embarrassing remarks, or any other conduct which might interfere with the enjoyment of the game is specifically prohibited by Law 74A. Law 91A gives the director the authority to assess disciplinary penalties.
2020 First Quarter Mondays at 11:30 Centerville Lodge
January 6 Splinters
January 13 Preempts
January 20 Third And Fourth Seat Openers
January 27 Bidding Over Nt Openers
February 3 Cue Bidding
February 10 Gerber
February 17 Transfers/Setting Trump
February 24 Quantitative Bids
March 2 Suit Vs Nt
March 9 50 Tips For Declarers
March 16 50 Tips For Defenders
March 23 Convention Card Requirements
March 30 Bidding Over Artificial Bids/Systems
Please remember that is important to maintain very cordial relationships with the staffs and employees of our sites. it is not our right but rather our privilege to play at these facilities
Phone: 508 364-6635
HOT DOG FRIDAYS!