| Hand 2 Knowing the odds |
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When I first looked at this I thought the obvious line is finesse the SK and when the S10 appears on the first round draw trumps and give up a trick to the DA for 12 tricks.
But what if you get the lead of DA and another Diamond?
Now if the Spade finesse loses South will give North a Diamond ruff. So I wondered if the percentage play was win the S.A. and lead low towards hand.
The slightly better play is not to take the Spade finesse but this is pairs so I would take the finesse because that is what most players in the room would do.
If you're interested in the Maths you can see my attempt at it by clicking to see the answer
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| Show Answer |
With four cards missing the probability of the different splits is:
| Split of Four Missing Cards |
%age Chance of Split |
| 2-2 |
40 |
| 3-1 or 1-3 |
51 |
| 4-0 or 0-4 |
10 |
So looking at the four missing Spades and the effect of taking (or not taking) finesse
| W Spades |
E Spades |
Freq. |
If Fin |
No Fin |
Finesse Delta |
Finesse Cumulative |
| K 10 |
5 3 |
6.66% |
12 |
11 |
+1*6.66% |
6.66% |
| K 5 |
10 3 |
6.66% |
12 |
11 |
+1*6.66% |
13.33% |
| K 3 |
10 5 |
6.66% |
12 |
11 |
+1*6.66% |
21% |
| 10 5 |
K 3 |
6.66% |
10 |
11 |
-1*6.66% |
13.33% |
| 10 3 |
K 5 |
6.66% |
10 |
11 |
-1*6.66% |
6.66% |
| 5 3 |
K 10 |
6.66% |
10 |
11 |
-1*6.66% |
Nil |
| K 10 3 |
5 |
6.25% |
11 |
11 |
Nil |
Nil |
| K 10 5 |
3 |
6.25% |
11 |
11 |
Nil |
Nil |
| K 5 3 |
10 |
6.25% |
12 |
11 |
+1*6.25% |
6.25% |
| 10 5 3 |
K |
6.25% |
10 |
12 |
-2*6.25% |
-6.25% |
| 3 |
K 10 5 |
6.25% |
10.5 |
11 |
-0.5*6.25% |
-9.375% |
| 5 |
K 10 3 |
6.25% |
10.5 |
11 |
-0.5*6.25% |
-12.5% |
| 10 |
K 5 3 |
6.25% |
11 |
11 |
Nil |
-12.5 |
| K |
10 5 3 |
6.25% |
10.5 |
12 |
-1.5*6.25% |
-21.875% |
| K 10 5 3 |
- |
5% |
11 |
10 |
1*5% |
-16.875% |
| - |
K 10 5 3 |
5% |
11 |
11 |
Nil |
-16.875% |
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