Taking Losing Trick Count to the Next Level

Acknowledgements:  Arnold Fraser-Campbell and F. Dudley Courtenay are credited with developing the original Losing Trick Count (LTC) methodology in the early 30s.  Ron Klinger published his first book on LTC in 1987.  Jennifer Jones has written several articles for Bridge Bulletin extolling the merits of using LTC rather than high card points to determine the trick taking potential of a hand.  

I find LTC is especially useful in determining whether to accept partner’s invitation to game, but, there are lots of other places where LTC can be applied to your advantage. Remember, LTC only applies after partners have found an 8 card or better trump fit. LTC assumes that half the finesses work and trump split reasonably, but point-count bidding assumes the same.  

Bottom line - it really does work and it’s very easy to learn and use.  Interestingly, you can apply most of the basics even if your partner does not play LTC.

By way of a quick review for readers who may not have read Jennifer’s articles, here is the way you count losers.  First, there can never be more than 3 losers in any suit and never more losers than cards in the suit.  So, Aces, Kings and Queens count as winners.  Some people count Qxx (an unguarded Queen) as 2½ losers; others count it as 2---your choice.  A singleton King is 1 loser, Qx is 2 and Jacks and spot cards are losers.  Most opening hands have 7 losers, and 1NT openers split about 50-50 between 6 and 7 losers.   More on that latter.  

Here are a couple of example hands:

♠    KQJxx     1 loser ♠    x               1 loser

♥    xxx          3 losers ♥    AKQxxx    no losers

♦    AQTx       1 loser ♦    xxx            3 losers

♣    Jx             2 losers ♣    xxx            3 losers

Total: 13 pts, 7 losers                Total: 9 pts,7 losers

So, how do I use it?  Without getting too deep into the math, take the partnership’s total number of losers, subtract it from 24 and the result is the number of tricks the partnership should be able to take.  If opener has 7 and responder has 7 (a game force hand), 7 + 7 = 14.  24 – 14 = 10.  You should make 10 tricks.  It’s really just that simple.  

When partner opens one of a suit you should assume she has a 7 LTC hand until she shows you more on her second bid.  As responder, you always want to tell partner what kind of hand you have; Weak-10LTC, Constructive-9LTC, Invitational-8LTC, or Game Force-7LTC.  

Now, let’s take it to the next level.  

Do you play Bergen Raises?  If so, 1♥ , 3♦  (limit/invitational showing 4 trump and 10-12 pts) puts partner in the quandary---bid game or pass?  When was the last you passed an invitation?  Playing LTC, opener will know responder has 8LTC.  With a 7LTC hand, opener passes.  With 6, opener accepts and bids game.  That simple.  No more hand wringing.  Opener immediately knows what to do.  

Do you play Stayman?  Let’s say you have an 8LTC hand with a 4-card heart suit and partner opens 1NT.  You bid 2♣  and she rebids 2♥ .  You know that partner has a 6 or 7 LTC hand, so you “ask her” if she has a 6LTC hand by bidding 3♥ .  If she has 6 LTC she will take the bid to game.  If she has a 7LTC hand she will pass.

Jacoby Transfer? You have a 6-card heart suit and an 8LTC hand and partner opens 1NT.  You bid 2♦  and partner transfers to 2♥ .  You have a fit, since she must have at least 2 hearts, so you bid 3♥ .  Again, you are asking her to bid game with a 6LTC hand and to pass with a 7LTC hand. 

Texas Transfer?  Does the bid of 4 of the Major always make?  Probably not.  Want to increase your odds?  As responder, try this?  Only bid Texas holding a 6-card major and 7LTC Remember, only about half of NT openers have 6LTC, most of the others have 7.  So, holding Kxxxxx, Qx, Axx, xx (8LTC) should you use Texas?  I wouldn’t.  Half of the time (when opener has 7LTC) the 4♠  bid will go down.  

4-Way Minor Suit Transfers?  After Responder transfers, Opener should Super Accept to show a 6LTC hand provided it has Qxx or any 4 card trump support

3-Way Inverted Minors?  After a 1♣ /♦  open, responder denies a 4 card Major, shows 4 card support and 9LTC by bidding 3♣ /♦ , 8LTC by jumping in the other minor 2♦  or 3♣  and 7LTC by a simple raise, 2♣ /♦ .  Here again the Slow/Fast arrival principle applies.  (Note: Playing 3-Way, the 8LTC bid, a jump in the other minor, can be difficult to remember for some partnerships.  In that case play 2 Way – a simple raise is 7LTC, jump raise is 8 or 9.  If you play short Club openers, then responding to 1♣  would require 5 card support.   

Jacoby 2NT?  Responder showed 4 trump and 7LTC with his 2NT response to 1♥ /♠ .  You know what kind of hand she has so now you need to tell her how good your hand is.  Use the slow arrival principle here.  With a very good hand (5LTC) rebid your major at the 3-level telling partner slam is very likely.  With a good hand (6LTC) rebid 3NT asking partner if she has 6LTC.  If so, she will ask for Aces, if she has 7LTC, she will bid 4 of the major, closeout.  With an average opener (7LTC) jump immediately to game (Fast Arrival).  Responder can immediately evaluate slam likelihood by adding her losers to yours and she will bid accordingly. Remember, for the 6-level slam you are looking for 12 LTC total. 

Splinters?  Just remember that all splinters should show 4 trump and 7LTC.

Drury?   Seemed like half the time, either my partner or I would not realize we were responding to a 3rd/4th seat open and would make a 2♣ /♦  response thinking it was natural.  When this happened, we would routinely get to 3 or 4 of the major without a fit.  So, we stopped using Drury and instead responder assumed the 3rd/4th seat opener only had an 8LTC hand and responded accordingly, that is all bids responding to a 3rd/4th seat opener show a 1LTC better hand than normal.  Simple and effective.  

And a few of Don’ts   Don’t open weak with 9LTC and don’t Takeout Double with 9LTC.  Don’t open 1NT with 8LTC.  Those bids typically get you in trouble.