Make your own luck
Sometimes you get lucky, and at other times you can make your own luck.
Take this hand. The contract's 3NT. You've got just 8 top tricks. You might make a 9th trick in hearts (if they're split 3-3 or if the ♥J's in a doubleton). Or it might come from diamonds.
If South's the declarer, you just might your contract at trick 1. If West leads a diamond, it doesn't matter where the ♦A is - you've just made a diamond trick. Or if she leads the ♥2. 4th highest from an honour? What honour might that be? Must be the ♥J: OK, up with dummy's ♥10 and this time your ninth trick's coming from hearts. *
But what if - as shown here - North's declarer instead? East leads the ♠7 and you need to plan your play ...
3NT by North
As we saw above, you have 8 top tricks and two possible ways of making the 9th: dropping the ♥J (a little over 54% chance **) or finessing a diamond: leading a low diamond towards the ♦K, hoping that East has the ♦A. Just 50%, that one, and what a disaster it'll be if West has the ♦A ... so let's go for the heart option.
The first decision you have to make is whether or not to go up with the ♠A or to hold up for a couple of rounds - see last week's HOTW.
Let's say you decide to hold up. West wins with the ♠10, then leads back the ♠Q ... and you take the third trick with your ♠A. What do you do now?
Well, you might cash a few club tricks before touching the hearts, in case someone carelessly discards a heart, or you might go straight for the hearts. Either way, everyone follows to the ♥AK, but on the ♥Q East discards: West started with ♥Jxxx. Is all lost?
An 'end play'
Maybe not. Once you've taken all your heart and club winners, you're left with the ♥8 and the ♦K2. If you lead a diamond, you're sunk, aren't you? But suppose you lead the ♥8? West wins ... and may only have diamonds left. And if one of them's the ♦A, you've just made your contract. She can cash her ♦A, but then has to lead her last diamond round to your ♦K. And that's your 9th trick.
The whole deal
Take a look at the whole deal. You should go off, of course. If you take your ♠A at trick 1, you just get your 8 top tricks. And if you hold up, after taking 2 spade tricks, East should really switch to the ♦J, which scuppers you ...
... but if she continues a 3rd spade, it works a treat. After you've cashed your winners, West is left with the J and AQ. So all you need to do is throw her in with a heart and she's endplayed.
What happened?
On the posh night, the Souths who got a heart lead made 9 tricks, but most of Norths went off. Just one North got a spade lead and made 9 tricks.
In AP, the 3 declarers in NT all went off, while the 2 in 1♥ (how did that happen??) made 9 tricks.
Afterword
We've just seen an example of an endplay, which is a way of getting an opp to lead a suit that you don't want to lead yourself - in this case diamonds. Endplays can get a bit complicated: first you have to eliminate all the cards in the opp's hand in the other suits, then you have to throw her in so that she has the lead. Which is exactly what happens here.
But you don't have to be a technical genius to make it work. Sometimes it just happens: your holding up deprived West of her spades; your four club tricks used up all her clubs; the ♥AKQ left her with just one heart - the 'throw-in' card. And once you've thrown her in she has to give you a diamond trick. So just by cashing all your winners you've set everything up perfectly and it only remains for you to exit with a heart rather than a diamond. Simple!
cj
* When Trevor and I played this hand, the bidding went a little differently. 1♥ from South, 2♥ from North (might only have 3 hearts), then 3NT from South (I'm 19 points with a flat hand - if you've only got 3 hearts you might prefer to be in NT?) and North, who does indeed have only 3 hearts, passes. So South was declarer - and luckily for us West led the ♥2, so South simply banged out 9 tricks for a very pleasant 89% score - no special skill required!
** You'll succeed if the hearts are 3-3 (36%) OR if the ♥J is in a doubleton (16%) OR if the ♥J is a singleton (2.5%), which adds up to a total of 54.5%
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