Wallingford Bridge Club
Thoughts on a Deal
Wednesday November 28, Board 9

Great Result?

Look at the East hand and decide what you would bid after north has passed.

When I was faced with that problem here is what went through my mind.

With diamonds as trumps I have a good chance of 9 tricks without any help from my partner. However if my partner has nothing then the opposition almost certainly has a major suit game and I will be seriously considering a vulnerable sacrifice of 5. That will lead to a double and with unfavourable vulnerability that will be a bad result.

On the other hand partner is likely to have something and in view of the pass by North whatever West has is likely to be well placed and that makes it likely that I will make at least 10 tricks in diamonds and possibly 11. Playing in pairs I discount the chance of bidding and making 12.

In addition the odds are very strong that partner is going to have a holding in one of the majors, and I will be profoundly uninterested in playing in either major, and my hand really does not look like one to play in No Trumps.

One useful Bridge maxim is 'When you know what the final contract is going to be, bid it'. So I opened 5.

I would love to read (and publish)anyone else’s thoughts on what East should bid. I am quite happy to be told that my bid was ill-considered, particularly at unfavourable vulnerability so do not feel you should hold back on account of my feelings (but see below).

What Happened Next

South obviously felt I was trying to steel something and promptly doubled which is where the bidding ended.

South led the Q. Perhaps you are of the school that casts a dim eye on doubleton leads but the analysis undertaken by David Bird in his latest book (Leads Against Trump Contracts, the companion volume to last year's Leads Against No Trumps. Both books are worth reading as long as you have an open mind because both books challenge conventional wisdom) suggests that we need to reconsider the value of leading a doubleton against a trump contract.

I surveyed dummy, counted my tricks,and considered my entries. I have one sure entry, the Q and as long as the A is well placed I have a second entry in the K. The real problem is how I am going to handle the 2 small clubs in my hand. If North has the A my contract is doomed so time for another maxim 'If you need a specific card to be well placed, plan on the assumption that it is.' I also need a 4th round ruff of a losing club so I cannot afford to draw any trumps.

Having won the opening lead with a top club I led the other top club. When both defenders followed I exited with a 3rd club. When South discarded I knew he had led a doubleton and could see no advantage in winning the 3rd round of clubs. The trouble is that having seen dummy he also knows that East will be stuck for a lead to the 4th trick so perhaps ruffing might be worth consideration, even if it is ruffing partner's winner.

With the A well placed the 5* is rock solid.

So could South have done any better on another lead?

Leading A is immediately fatal for the defense as it sets up the K though I still need to play to ruff the 4th round of clubs. (and under-leading the A just forces declarer to cover and hope)

Leading a spade fails but not because it sets up a spade trick for declarer. The spade trick is of no practical use as I have 2 slow club losers in hand and must still play for a 4th round ruff of a club.

That leaves a trump lead, and now things become much more interesting (i.e. creates potential problems for declarer) because declarer has to get the timing right. He must win the first trick in hand and play the AK and a small club hoping that neither north nor south started with 2 clubs and 3 trumps(because then the could trump the 3rd round of clubs and play a second round of trumps leaving declarer with a losing club.) Yes, there are still layouts in which 5 will make but the pendulum has swung towards the defenders.

As the cards lie, declarer will make 5 even on a trump lead but I am not so sure that I would have found the correct line at the table, I would possibly be seduced by that KQ and thoughts of ruffing finesses.

Conclusion

Declarer should always make 11 tricks in diamonds, but 10 tricks are available in No Trumps even against an inspired defense, so perhaps opening 5 was not the best idea.

A Humbling Computer Analysis

I set up my dealing program to deal 100 deals with a hand that north would likely pass (less than 12HCP and no 6+ card suit) and the east hand fixed. Now I am surprised because the verdict is very clear that the bid was not just bad, but awful (yes I know some of you already knew that, but read on).

In 36 of the 100 deals NS had no makable contract, they can make 4 spades 7 times and North (but not South) can make 4 twice. In only 2 out of the 7 cases of 4 making is 5 a bad result (and then only if it is doubled).

So the first conclusion is that the pre-empt is completely unnecessary from the perspective of stopping NS finding a major suit game.

However much worse; 26 times EW can make 6, and 20 times they can make 7. In addition there were 5 cases when EW can make 5 (or better) but not make 5. Add in the 23 cases where EW cannot make either 5 or 5 and we can see how poor that pre-empt really is. Almost half the time East has pre-empted partner with the result that the partnership misses a slam.

And the final shock (for me) was to discover that on 43 of the deals 9 or more tricks were available in No Trumps (and almost a third of those were slams in No Trumps).

Note that virtually every assumption I based my bid on was wrong.

Mea Culpa. I must do better in future.

Finally

Never assume that good results endorse your bidding, sometimes (as here) you are just lucky.

August 31st, Board 11

Black Queens and Finessing Part 2

There was rare unanimity on this board. Every EW partnership played in 4 and the only minor dissent was that one pair managed to get west playing it. There was even considerable agreement as to what to lead, 6 out of  7 chose to lead a small diamond (clearly in one of those cases the lead has been miss-reported).

Declarer played low and north wins the K and generally returns a diamond (it is as good as anything). Declarer wins the A and plays the AK to get the bad news that south has 4 spades to the jack and so now has a natural spade winner. He has also got 2 heart losers to deal with along with 2 club losers. It isn't looking very good. Certainly drawing another round of trumps appears to be fatal. The Q will take care of one loser but how to deal with the rest.

Declarer sets about setting up a cross-ruff being careful to keep south off lead until he is ready to issue the coup de grace.

He cashes the K crosses to the A and plays the Q discarding dummy's low club. Now he plays a low club and when south plays low he plays the ten from dummy. This is not a finesse to win a trick but a way to keep control. North wins the Q and then plays the 6 (a red card works no better). Declarer wins the A and plays a low heart with these cards remaining:

      -
     
JT

      JT
     
-

93         QT
65         -
-          -
-          J7

            J7
             
-
             
-
     
K9


Declarer asks for a low heart from dummy. What card should he play from his hand? Obviously he must ruff (he has already lost 2 tricks and has an unavoidable trump loser so cannot afford to loose a heart trick as well.

Declarer must ruff with the queen. Do you see what happens if he ruffs with the ten?

This is one of the rare cases when a player should over-ruff (usually over ruffing is a mistake) and then return his remaining trump. Declarer  wins in hand, can ruff a club but now has a heart loser.

But see how different it is if declarer ruffs with the Q. He now plays a club and ruffs it with the 3 and plays dummy's last heart which he ruffs with his last trump. Now south can over-ruff but can do no damage. Dummy's nine wins the last trick.

There are a number of variations in playing this hand but once you discover the bad trump break the key play is to cash the two top hearts and then let north have a club trick. Declarer must not let south draw a 3rd round of trumps until both dummy's small hearts have been ruffed.

Note that if declare fails to cash both top hearts before giving up a club trick to north, north can exit with a diamond and south can discard his Q and now declarer cannot get the timing right.

Success on this hand involves breaking one of the finessing rules (do not take a finesse you know will not work) in clubs, but following the same rule when ruffing the 3rd round of hearts with the Q not the 10.


August 29th, Board 13

Black Queens and Finessing Part 1

When this board was played the most popular contract was 3NT by West and the defense has no problem withholding declarer to 11 tricks (the bidding has probably suggested an opening lead of a diamond by north). However, 13 tricks are available to EW in either black suit (a rare case of being able to make a grand slam on a 5-1 fit) not that any sane pair should bid a grand in either as it depends on a great deal of luck.

Two pairs reached 6. One declarer received the lead of the 7 (Middle, Up, Down). 13 tricks can be made on that lead but most declarer's will take the losing club finesse and have to settle for 12 tricks.

When it was played at the other table the bidding was as shown. Before south led he asked about the diamond bid, and west said it was 4th suit forcing, declarer had to then explain that that convention was not on their card. Perhaps influenced by the exposure of the bidding misunderstanding south led the 2. Declarer saw no reason not to let the lady have her chance and played low from dummy. When the Q won declarer stopped to count his tricks. He had two diamond tricks and 4 spades, so as long as he could make 6 club tricks he did not need the heart suit even if spades broke badly.

In isolation taking the club finesse would be the right way to play that suit, but in the context of the hand as a whole declarer can afford to loose the Q as long as he can use 2 trumps in each hand for ruffing the red suits.

That is why declarer played across to the A and then played back to the K. No peeking was necessary to eschew the club finesse. The danger of the finesse is that if it looses and south holds the last club he can lead it and declarer then has to hope the A is well placed. As the cards lie the Q drops and declarer can afford to run the spade suit before drawing the last trump. Declarer cashes the K, crosses to dummy by ruffing a heart and then plays the spades from the top. If north ruffs declarer can over-ruff cross to dummy with the A and continue playing spades. Then he plays the 3rddiamond ruffs it in hand and when the K drops he can cross to dummy with a second heart ruff and win the 13th trick with the 10.

Curiously, that lovely 6-card heart suit might just as well have been the 6 lowest hearts because declarer never tries to make a heart trick so only 24 of EW's 30 HCP are working. Five tricks in a 5-1 fit and 3 tricks in a 4-2 fit missing both the king and jack. However notice the power of the 4-4trump fit in clubs.

Three Rules for Finesses

  1. Do not take finesses you know will lose

  2. Do not take finesses that you do not need

  3. Do not take finesses that can cost two tricks if they fail.

There are exceptions to all those rules but in each case they will usually be a measure of desperation.


August 22nd, Board 15

Making the Extra Over-trick

(see end for an addendum)

When playing match pointed pairs both partnerships are fighting over every trick. The difference on this hand between making 11 tricks in no trumps and making 12 is the difference between an average and an excellent result for declarer.

Most pairs ended up playing in 3NT, but declarer should still be trying to make 12 tricks if the spade queen is on side. On the lead of the 3 it would seem virtually certain that west has led 4th highest from the Q and it costs nothing to test that by playing the J from dummy at trick one. When that holds you can count 11 tricks (6 clubs, 3 spades and 2 diamonds), What are the chances of making a 12th trick?

At first glance the best chance would seem to be that the A is in the east hand. But before committing to that look and see if there are any other possibilities

Try the effect of cashing all your clubs. You can discard the 4 and two small hearts from dummy. But what are the defenders going to do? If the clubs are 2-2 (which they are) both of them are going to have to find 4 discards, and if they are 3-1 or 4-0 one of them is going to have to find even more discards. Both are going to come under pressure on the sixth round of clubs.

Now cash the K and return to hand with the A. Your safest line of play is to cash the A and discard the 7 from dummy then cross back to dummy with the K. You have been counting diamonds (that is the essential suit to count here) and will know if the 8 is now a winner. If it isn't you can still try the heart suit.

The Essential Play

When discarding on your long clubs the essential play is NOT to discard a diamond from dummy. That 3rddiamond will keep the pressure on the defenders even if you cannot see it at the table. The third diamond is your extra chance that means you will often make 12 tricks even if the A is in west's hand. Spotting these extra chances is the edge that good players have over average club players.

Addendum: Making All 13

Several readers have asked me about how one declarer made all 13 tricks. I have not discussed this with the players concerned but here are my thoughts about how this happened.

NS were a very experienced partnership who play quite a complex bidding system. I guess that North chose to bid no trumps on his hand rather than 1 (as most responders in an Acol based system would do). Certainly the north hand looks more suited to playing in No Trumps and as long as your system allows you to bid 1NT as a forcing bid (the increasingly popular 2 over 1systems generally have a forcing 1NT response to partner opening a suit)

The result of this bidding choice is that East is on lead and has no reason not to lead a heart. It is usually right to lead an unbid major against a No Trump contract. East led the 4 (note there is an error on the traveler, east does not have the 6). Declarer asks for the 9 and now west has a difficult problem. The opening lead has promised a heart honour, but which one? If partner has the Q, winning the A and driving out the K looks safe, but if partner only has the J, winning the A gives declarer a second heart trick as now both the K and Q will win tricks. On balance it looks safe to duck and let the 9 win. Only the most experienced defenders would see the potential problem of being squeezed in 3 suits when declarer runs his clubs.

Of course, in this case an expert declarer grabbed the opportunity and ran 6 club tricks, discarding 3hearts, including the J from hand. Poor west has no good card to throw on the 6th club (assuming that he has discarded a heart and 2 diamonds). Meanwhile, east is also suffering. He can delay the problem by throwing away his 3 spades, and can afford to throw one red card. However declarer now takes the spade finesse and cashes the SA. At this point east must abandon his heart holding, but very few would recognise that they must hang on to 3 diamonds.

So far we have had 1 heart trick, 6club tricks and 2 spades. Which 4 cards will east and west each hold onto? West must keep the A and J (otherwise the A10 will bracket the Q) and probably has kept 2 spades. Next declarer cashes 2 round of diamonds finishing in hand and unless east has kept 3 diamonds he can play the 8. What can west now discard? Of course an expert defender will have been counting the spade suit and realise that declarer only started with 3, but most will have focused on that early discard of the J and be convinced that declarer has no more hearts but has 2 spades. So west has been bluffed into discarding the A and the K becomes declarer's 13th trick.

This may not be exactly how it happened at the table, but we can be certain that the 9 won the first trick and that west's ducking the first trick was to come back and haunt him. Declarer certainly deserved his top, but the defenders played much better than their 0 match points might suggest.

August 1st, Board 12

A Bidding Problem:

The Opening Bid

The only real interest in this hand is in west's opening bid. You will not often pick up a hand like west's. The question is what to bid as dealer.

There is an excellent rule about pre-empting; make your maximum pre-empt and then shut up. If you have an eight card suit in a weak hand the normal pre-empt is to open at the four level. Fine, but this time you have a nine card suit so surely you should open at the five level but there is a problem.

Opening Five of a Major

Opening 5 or 5 has a special meaning. It promises a long solid suit missing only the ace and king and no side suit losers. Typically:

A

QJT985432

-

AKQ

On this hand you know you can make 11 tricks with hearts as trumps. You also know that you are unlikely to make more than 11 unless partner has one or both of the missing top hearts. You open 5 and partner passes unless they have one or both of the top hearts when they correct to 6 or 7. Note that partner knows that those are the only two cards that are of any use to the partnership.

At the Table

I was pretty sure that my partner would remember this convention, though perhaps I should have opened 5 anyway on the basis that partner would have to pass because I knew where the AK were. However it crossed my mind that we might be able to make a slam if partner had the right cards and so I was not keen on shutting my partner up.

The problem with bidding 4 is that it is pretty likely that experienced opponents will bid 4 and then neither I nor my partner will have any idea as whether to leave them to play in 4 or sacrifice with 5.

The point about pre-empting is to make the opponents guess but not force your partner do so. How to resolve this issue? At the table I passed, which I needed to do reasonably in tempo. When the bidding returned to me I knew that my partner did not have enough to make a slam worth consideration so now I bid 5. My partner was experienced enough to realize that I must have a hand very like the one I had. Now north had to guess, double or bid 5? Note that as EW are not-vulnerable, a double will not do NS much good if they can make 5. There will also be the nagging worry that they may be missing a slam. In the event it is not surprising that north chose to bid 5.

As you can see, that was not a good choice as even when east failed to return a diamond when in with the A he still gets to make the K to take the contract one off.

Hearts versus Spades

Had dealer held spades instead of hearts opening 4 would have a lot going for it because now the opponents have to bid at the five-level if they want to compete. There is still the problem of possibly missing a slam but making the opponents guess at the five level probably wins in the long run.

Thursday, July 26, Board 11
Cross Ruff

The Bidding

Thursday afternoon Bridge is relaxed but that does not mean that it is not competitive in a friendly way. Last Thursday just two novices turned up for supervised play (there was a class on team play in the evening so it is surprising that any turned up). Gillian Weatherley and I paired up with Glennis Fryd and Barbara Antrobous. Not surprisingly, Glennis and Barbara were a bit nervous on this hand which was the first one of the afternoon for us. The bidding was not quite text book (though not that far out, well apart from east's optimistic view of his hand).

I think both novices shone in the bidding. Bidding 3 over 2 was an excellent decision, showing an appreciation for partners transfer bid. I think my partner's raise to 5 also showed an understanding of what the bidding had revealed. Surely partner must have 5 diamonds as well as 5 or more spades and west can reasonably expect partner to have a bit more strength than he actually had. Note that the bidding makes it very likely that partner has a heart void (and certainly no more than a singleton) so west knows that her spade singleton is going to be useful.

The Play

Glennis led the A and dummy went down.It seemed clear to me that the hand needed to be played on a cross-ruff, ruffing hearts and spades. Had I just been in 4 that would have worked fine but I really should have counted my entries because on a red suit lead I cannot make all 9 of my trumps separately.

On a Black Suit Lead

The contract is easy on a lead of a club or a spade (indeed on a club lead declarer can make 12 tricks). Win the A (immediately on a spade lead, second trick on a club lead) then cross ruff spades and hearts (remembering to cash the A early). That makes 10 tricks, 2 aces and 8 trumps. There will still be a top diamond left in declarer's hand for the 11th trick.

Unfortunately this will not work on a red suit lead because after ruffing the 3rd spade there is no way back to hand to ruff the last spade. The result is that the two top trumps cannot be made separately.

If declarer (me) had taken the time to work it out he would have realized that a second club trick was essential.

On a Heart Lead

The best chance is to ruff the opening lead, play the A and then ruff a spade.  Then lead a low club towards the Q hoping the K is in the north hand. It isn't this time but the day is saved by North having the 10-jack doubleton. Now the 9 will become a trick.

On a Diamond Lead

Declarer needs a great deal more luck because the defense will certainly get a chance to draw a second round of trumps reducing the trump tricks to 7. That means that declarer will need 3 club tricks to go with the A. Note that after two rounds of diamonds there will be too few trumps left in dummy to set up a long spade. It would be declarer's lucky day because the club position means that the 8 can be set up for the extra club trick.

It is worth noting that it is almost always right to lead a trump if the opponents settle in their second choice suit.

Conclusion

It is always important before setting out on a cross-ruff to cash top tricks in side suits. However it is also important to work-out whether the entries in the two hands allow you to use all your trumps effectively. When you are in an optimistic contract you really do need to consider the value of your high pip cards.

This deal is an example of shape beats points. Though N/S have a combined 22 count and an excellent 9 card major, all they can make against the best defense is 1. Yet E/W can make 5 on an 18 count. Good trump fits become much more valuable when accompanied by shortages in side suits.


Friday, July 20th, Board 2
Unauthorized Information

What Happened

East led the 7 (second from a poor suit) and west went up with the A and returned the 7 (low card promising an honour). Declarer won the K and immediately led the 10 and let it run. West let it hold the trick (quite correct). Declarer now led the 2 and called for the J when east discarded a low heart (confirming that she had started with 4 hearts). West won the K and returned the 8. Declarer won the A in dummy and then cashed the A before leading the K. West won the A and returned the J. Declarer ruffed and led the 10 and overtook with the J. Then led the Q and discarded the Q (necessary to allow dummy to win the remaining 3 clubs). West conceded the rest.

Mistakes

Both declarer and west made a serious mistake in the above play which effectively cancelled each other out. Before reading on see if you can spot them (try working through the play for yourself).

OK, let us go back to the start.Declarer can be certain that west started with Kxxx, AQJx. The remaining five cards are a little more doubtful. It is possible that west has a 5th heart. East's 2 call (a free bid as north had bid 1 over the double by west) makes it more likely that west holds the A. Declarer must realize that he is in danger of being forced in diamonds as he must lose the A, the K and the A. He needs to plan the timing of drawing trumps and forcing out the A very carefully. Playing the 3rd round of trumps before driving out the A is a serious mistake. To see this we need to look at the defense error.

Suppose that west lets the K win. Now the contract is dead. West can win the second round of clubs and now the play of the J locks declarer in hand with no way of reaching dummy to draw the last trump.

How Declarer Should Have Played

When he wins the A, he should immediately play the K.  Now if west holds up he can safely play a second round of clubs. The difference now is that whatever card west tries to exit with, declarer can win and still have a trump to reach dummy and draw the last trumps before continuing with clubs. Note that declarer must be careful to get rid of the Q on the second round to avoid getting the club suit blocked.

By the way, if east does have the A and west has no more than 2 clubs 4 cannot be made. East can win the second round of clubs and then give partner a club ruff.

An Explanation of the Bidding

You may wonder why north chose to bid 1 rather than 1. Without the intervening double, bidding 1 is definitely the normal bid. However after the intervening double north has several things to consider. A redouble is certainly a possibility but not with an inexperienced partner. 1NT is possible. What about 1? Well north must consider what south may be planning to rebid and the best way to get in the way of E/W. 1 means that if E/W have a fit in either major it will be harder for them to find it. It also means that if south was planning to reverse by bidding 2 next then 3NT will be a possible contract and the opening lead is likely to be a heart, a suit that north is not worried about.

East's 2 overcall is very aggressive but at favourable vulnerability and happy for partner to bid hearts it seems reasonable.

South has a difficult decision as to whether to bid 2 or 3. The singleton heart coupled with excellent spades just about swings it in favour of 3. At the table the inexperienced south certainly showed that she was caught between the two bids but finally settled on bidding 3. West let that go (I think that she might have called the director at that point to determine if south should be required to return to 2 but she chose not to). Now at this point North is in possession of unauthorized information; south probably does not have enough to bid 3. When in possession of unauthorized information it is important to chose your bid carefully.Had South settled on 2 after obvious doubt then north must pass unless he holds a much better hand than the one here. However, by the same logic, north must try 4 after south bids 3 unless he clearly has too little to accept an invitation even if the result is to be in an unmakeable contract.

That is my understanding of the rules with respect to unauthorized information (knowing something about your partner's hand because of the way partner has bid rather than what partner has bid).

Calling the Director

The correct time to call the director is immediately you are aware of a possible infringement (in this case south's erratic 3 bid). Calling the Director later after you have got a poor result is likely to cause ill-feeling and should be avoided.



Friday Eevening, Board 15

The Best Chance

No Bidding?

6 was reached twice on this deal. One pair were playing a strong club system where reaching a very thin slam is probably worth a punt. They will have discovered their 5-3 fit in spades early on and south will be aware of the distribution in the red suits as well as north's useful K. The second time 6 was bid was a pure gamble that worked because west did not lead the A fearing that south had a void in that suit.

The Play on the Lead of the Diamond Ace

Somehow south has reached a contract of 6. West leads the A. What are your chances? Slim at best but south must take the best shot because going off will be a disaster. So let us start by tallying our tricks and making a plan.

The club suit appears to be only good for two tricks. Even with the most favourable possible arrangement of trumps you cannot afford to ruff more than 1 round of clubs in dummy.

Assuming that the Q is in the west hand you have three heart ricks. With a modicum of luck you can make 5 spade tricks. That comes to a total of ten. Where can the other tricks come from?

If one player holds the QJ9 you can ruff the club suit good, but then you will need east to hold one of Q9, Q8 or Q98. That seems improbable.

Another possibility for an 11th trick is that west holds the QT9 which would make dummy's 8 an eventual winner if south can get to it after all east-west's trumps have gone. That, combined with a club ruff would generate 12 tricks.

So what about the diamond suit? If east started with Kxx(x) declarer can set up three diamond tricks in dummy.

The best chance would seem to be the diamond suit, but that requires at least two entries to dummy, the first to play a top diamond and the second to enjoy the long diamonds after the K has been driven out. The K is one entry and the second one can only come from the spade suit. That means that declarer cannot afford to cross to dummy to start drawing trumps. Which means that we must hope that the Q is a doubleton (about a 30% chance) and that east holds the K with two or three small diamonds or exactly K8 (which would promote dummy's 7) . Of course, east might hold the K as a singleton but declarer will discover that when play of trick one continues).

Win whatever west leads to the second trick in hand (do not consider for one moment playing the HJ should west lead a heart because you must win the HA in hand in order to preserve the HK as a late entry to dummy) and play the AK . This is your lucky day, the Q drops. Cross to dummy with a third round of trumps and lead the Q and continue diamonds until east plays the K, ruff and return to dummy with the K (no need to take the finesse) and play the remaining diamonds. At some convenient moment you can cash the AK and the A. 12 tricks (5 spades, 2 hearts, 3 diamonds and 2 clubs) made.

An Opening Lead in Another Suit

South wins the lead in hand, and immediately tackles the heart suit by playing the A and finessing the J to discard the 9. Note that even on a heart lead south must first win the A and then take the finesse.

Now south ruffs the club suit twice in dummy before drawing trumps (south can get back to hand with a diamond ruff). Eventually south will lose a trump trick but south will make 3 hearts, 3 clubs, 2 ruffs in dummy and 4 trumps in hand.

What About a Low Diamond?

How should declarer play on the unlikely lead of a diamond other than the A? East wins the trick with the K returns a small club (not the time to return partner's lead) declarer will play on the assumption that east started with the AK and try the same line as when east started by leading the A. As the cards lie, the slam is now doomed.

Deep Finesse ( a computer deal analysis program) claims that 12 tricks can always be made (playing double dummy). Though you need to see all four hands I think this line works.

Win a club and immediately ruff a club with the 4. Now lead a spade from dummy.

If east covers with his Q, win and play a small trump from hand winning in dummy. Ruff a diamond back to hand and play off the remaining trumps.

If east ducks, play dummy's last trump, win in hand and play the remaining trumps.

In either case on the play of the fifth trump east must discard from:


–

T962

–

Q7

If east discards a club, south's clubs are now all good and he makes 5 spades, 2 hearts, a club ruff and 4 clubs for 12 tricks.

If east discards a heart, south cashes the remaining top club, the A and then finesses the J, when that holds there are two more heart tricks in dummy.

This squeeze play works whatever card east returns after winning the K though the exact details vary. However it is the sort of play that will only be found double dummy because the other lines have a higher probability of success.

Underleading Aces Against Slams

It is worth noting that whilst underleading an ace against a suit contract is generally a high risk play that is better avoided, it is worth considering when it is dummy's suit and you are looking for a vital extra trick. If dummy holds the KJ of the suit it often forces declarer to make a decision at trick 1. Declarer is likely to assume your partner holds the ace and may finesse the J. When partner turns up with the Q you certainly have lost nothing and may have gained a trick. Even when declarer has a singleton it may still work to your benefit.

You generally should not try that at match pointed pairs as too often you will just gift declarer with an extra trick. However at teams and Butler scored pairs where over-tricks are relatively insignificant it is certainly worth considering.


Wednesday, June 6th, Board 5

All in the Bidding

The bidding on this hand will normally start with three passes. The EBU does not allow a 2NT bid to show a weak major 2-suitor at any level*. I think this is unnecessarily restrictive but that is what the Orange Book states explicitly. You can agree that 2NT means a weak hand with both minors but not with both majors.

You are allowed an agreement that 2/ shows 5+ in the bid major and 4+ in an unspecified second suit but this is not a common agreement. Note that several partnerships at Wallingford play that an opening 2/ shows a weak hand with 5+ cards in the bid major and 4+ cards in a minor. Those bids should be alerted and not announced as weak because of the extra information they include.

West is going to open his partnerships strongest opening bid, 2 for most, but 2 for some and 1 for those playing strong club systems.

For the rest of this article I am going to assume that west has opened an Acol 2.

What should East respond?

Those that insist on counting points and nothing else will respond with a negative 2 and an alert south will double (lead directing). The more discerning east will upgrade the hand because of those two 5-card majors with tens supporting the picture cards. They will likely bid 2 (promising 5 spades) preparing to rebid 4 (and surely promising 5 hearts).

After a negative response of 2 the standard response with a balanced 25 count is 3NT. That bid worries me. You have 8 top tricks and no reason to suppose that partner will have anything helpful. It is true that partner might have a couple of clubs and that the club suit will generate 5 tricks rather than 3. On the other hand, you might loose 5 diamond tricks. That is even more likely if south has doubled.

With the hands as they are you can just scrape by with 9 tricks in no trumps when the opponents lead a diamond and continue the suit to drive out the A whilst north still has a winning club.

I guess that a couple of players rebid 3 as that is the only reason I can think of for two easts getting to play in 6NT. Both times south led the K. The different results depend on how north plays to the first trick. North needs to be awake and play the J under his partner's K. Now south can confidently continue the suit. Even if you are playing count signals, that would be a right card to play in this context because north should realize when he sees dummy that it is vital for the defense to play a second round of diamonds immediately.

Optimism Pays

Look at how different it is when east takes a positive view and bids 2. Opener will now rebid 3 and responder gets to show his 5-5 shape by bidding 4.

At this point east should stop and think what hand west can have that can give a positive response. Even with the QJ, J and J partner must have a high diamond. So just bid 6. As you can see, that contract is rock solid. If you are more adventurous you might try Blackwood and when west shows an ace, bid 7.


Moral

Points are not the end of the story. Good shape is worth something. Tens are valuable support cards.

Note that east's hand isn't really worth 25 HCP because of the lack of potential for extra tricks and the high probability that any good cards partner as will be out of reach. On the other hand west's hand is certainly worth more than 7 HCP when playing in one of the majors.


* Gillian Weatherley emailed me to point out that strictly speaking the Orange book allows 2NT to mean a weak major 2-suitor at level 4. That is true, but it explicitly forbids the use of 2NT to show either a weak hand with both minors or a weak hand with both majors. At level 4 (above the level for most clubs and open competitions) you may use 2NT to show a weak 2-suitor as long as one of the suits is specified (e.g. Spades and a minor).

Wednesday, 30 may Board 5

Take Every Chance

Sometimes (well, in my case, quite often) we find ourselves in bad contracts, ones that very few other pairs will bid. In such cases we have to look for the best chance of making even if that risks losing more tricks (not making the contract will be a bad result anyway.)

This deal is an excellent example. Two pairs reached an abysmal 6NT. I have no idea what the bidding was in the other case but at my table it was a combination of an excellent pre-emptive overcall by east and a bidding misunderstanding between myself and my partner.

For those who are curious, my 4NT call was to play, not Blackwood. Partner thought it was Roman Keycard Blackwood, and also thought that 5NT was asking for any king other than the K. 6NT was an inevitable last shot at 'I really, really want to play in No Trumps'.

Now East found the very destructive lead of the Q (the other table got a passive lead of the A, which makes it much easier to find a winning line of play).

What I should have done at trick 2 is think very carefully as to where my best chances lay. I did not think it out nearly well enough.

What I Should Have Thought:

I have ten tricks on top, made up of 6 hearts, 2 clubs, and 2 diamonds. Where can the other tricks come from? After the first trick is complete I know that east started with exactly 7 clubs, which increases the probability that he has points in the other suits (he only has 3 in clubs). There are two suits that might deliver extra tricks.

1) the diamond suit

If east has the Q, the J can provide a trick. If east has exactly 3 diamonds including Q the diamond suit can be played for 4 tricks. If west has Qx and I play the AK the J will produce a third trick, but not a fourth. But that would mean that East has only two cards in the majors.

2) The spade suit

If west has both the Q and 10 then I can make 2 spade tricks. But if west has the A then east is just about certain to have the Q and so I will only make one spade trick.

Wishes

I got that far at the table and decided to play a few rounds of hearts to discover a bit more about the distribution. I wish I could have afforded that luxury but unfortunately I need the A as an entry to hand to cash the K after the A has gone. Why couldn't east have cashed his ace at trick 1? Perhaps because I had to tell the opponents that my 4NT was to play, suggesting that 6NT was not a happy spot.

How It Should Have Been

I should have crossed to hand with the A and played a diamond intending to decide about the finesse after I had seen which diamonds were played to the first round. In the event east shows out when I lead a second diamond from hand and that resolves the issue with regard to the diamond suit, there are no extra tricks to be had there.

Now turning to the spade suit. My only chance for two spade tricks is that east has the A and west has the Q and the 10. That means that I must play a low spade from dummy at trick 4 and cover whichever spade west chooses to play. East must now decide whether to take his A. It makes no difference.

If he wins the first spade trick, I win whatever he returns. Cash the K (using the A as an entry). I then cash the remaining five heart tricks before leading the second spade from the table to make the last two tricks with a finesse against west's high spades.

If east declines taking the A at the first opportunity, I must play off all the heart tricks before playing dummy's second spade and now when east wins the trick he only has black cards left and must either give me the lead in clubs or in spades, and either way I make the last two tricks. Note that if east does hold up the A I have to reach my hand by giving him the lead at a critical moment as the heart suit is the only way I can reach dummy to take the second spade finesse, and so I will have no direct way back to hand after playing the hearts, but I cannot cash the K until the A has gone.

Moral

When in a bad contract, try to imagine a lie of the cards that will let you make it.


Friday Afternoon, Board 4
Opening Lead Questions

I was browsing through the deals played last Friday afternoon (by the way, this session is designed to accommodate the full range of playing abilities. Whatever your ability, if you are can manage daytime play try this session) when I spotted this south hand. It immediately raised several issues in my mind.

Opening Lead

Given the bidding shown what lead would you make?

Nothing looks attractive. Doubleton leads are not often profitable (many expert players avoid them like the plague), and even less so when you have no prospect of ruffing. But leads from suits headed by AQ are also very dangerous against trump contracts. Unless you have reason to believe partner has the missing king leading anything other than the ace is close to suicidal. This is even more the case when it is a long suit where it is likely that one of the other players is short. As there are two opponent's and you have only one partner the chances favour the shortage being in one of the opponent's hands.


At the table all souths chose to lead one of their minor suit aces. Note that as the cards lie once you have led the A you must give your partner an immediate ruff else declarer can make 11 tricks (6 spades, 4 hearts and the diamond king). How will you know in which suit your partner has a singleton?


My preferred lead is the 9, not because it is a doubleton but because there is a small chance that partner has a top heart and can win and lead one of the minors. An experienced declarer will let the lead run round to the K, start to draw trumps and when the 4-0 split shows up will cross to dummy with a top trump and discard the 7 and two diamonds on the winning hearts (knowing that there is no danger of a ruff from south). Finally declarer plays dummy's last trump before returning to hand with a club or a heart ruff and then draws the outstanding trump.

South must come down to 3 diamonds (any more and he can be end played) and eventually the A. Should declarer persist with a sixth trump, south must discard the 10 and will then win the last 3 tricks with the Q and the two aces. If declarer retains a trump and exits with a diamond, at trick 10 south must win and return the A and when that is ruffed he will make two further diamond tricks.

Note that after the opening lead of a heart that south is perfectly safe, he just has to sit back an wait for his 3 tricks.


The Bidding

South has a massive 4-loser hand as long as one of the minor suits is trumps but has little hope of making more than 4 tricks if a major suit is trumps. Such a disparity suggests strongly that south should make every effort to be declarer in one of the minors.


In my opinion south is too strong to just show his shape with a bid of 2NT (showing 5-5 or better in the minors). He needs very little from partner to be making game and certainly should expect, at equal vulnerability to have a good sacrifice over 4 or 4.


If your partnership agreements allow it, an immediate overcall of 4NT demanding that partner chooses a minor at the five level would be perfect. However most players either have never discussed this bid or may have agreed to give it some other meaning.


If 4NT is not available to show big minor 2-suited hands then just quietly overcall with 2 (even though you have 6 clubs and only 5 diamonds it is important to give yourself space to consult partner as to which minor at the 5 level because that is where you anticipate that the bidding may be by the time you get to bid again.


When the bidding comes back to you with EW having reached 4 you will have no problem with bidding 5. Your partner will pass. The best EW can do is to double and now west has a lead problem. I wonder how many wests will find a defense that holds declarer to nine tricks? Unless the defenders lead a trump before they loose a trick declarer can make ten tricks on a cross ruff and should west make the mistake of leading a diamond, declarer will make 11 tricks.

Final Questions

If south can bid 4NT over 1 then north will become declarer in 5 and what should east lead? He might try a potentially fatal diamond hoping his partner has a void, and north as declarer might just try the finesse and make the contract.

Some players open 1NT on 5332 hands regardless as to which suit is the five card one. Now you will get a very different bidding sequence. Such as:

1NT pass 2 (transfer to spades) pass (wait, you will get a bid next time)

2 pass 4 4NT (unambiguously choose a minor partner)

pass 5 ?

It will be hard for east to double, and not easy for west to do so. 




Wednesday, 2nd May, Board 2
Prize Problem?

I have been thinking about this hand on and off for a week. Whether you play a weak no trump or a strong no trump south is going to finish as declarer playing in 1NT. (those playing an intermediate no trump such as 12-15 or 14-16 might find themselves playing in 2NT, or even in 3NT if playing teams where it generally pays to bid the thin games).

West is just about certain to lead the 2 (or 7 if playing 3rd and 5th leads). Until I have got round to reading David Bird's recent book on opening leads against no trump contracts I am not sure what the computer analysis of opening leads would suggest.

In practice all but one of the south players were playing in 1NT (the exception reached 2NT) and all got the 2 lead. Some went on to make just 8 tricks, some to make 9 tricks and one made 10 tricks. The computer analysis says that (played double dummy, i.e. with all 3 players knowing where all the cards are) 10 tricks are available to declarer. It is quite a good exercise to try to work that out, but the real problem is how to maximize your chances of at least 9 tricks. These are important when playing pairs.

Now focus just on the North-South hands (I have kept the EW hands hidden until you choose to look). The opening lead makes it very likely that east has started with a doubleton honour (AJ, AQ or Ax are possible but more likely Qx or Jx and an outside possibility of QJ). That means that you have 1 club trick unless west led from A762 and east has QJ. The first question is should you try the K at trick 1? After hours of thought (in other words far longer than I would be allowed at the table) I have come to the conclusion that you should ask for the K from dummy. There are 3 reasons for doing that: east might have the QJ, east might have Qx or Jx and decide to unblock by throwing the honour under the king on the basis that otherwise the club suit may be blocked (note that you hold the T9 with the 8 in dummy so EW need to make their top clubs separately to stop you making two club tricks)

So up with the K and east plays low. What next? It would be so much easier if the 8 was the 9 or the T was in the 4-card holding. Every now and then it pays to run a suit early to put the defenders under pressure, or possibly tempt them into a signal which will help you more than them. So play the spade suit, queen first. The idea being to lose the 4th spade and see what gets discarded. It is unlikely that west has 5 spades (surely he would have led a 5 card suit rather than a 4-card one) so the risk is fairly low.

West gives you an old fashioned look when he turns out to have the JTx so your 9 wins the 4th round and west has to discard. Most west's will not discard in tempo because they will want to think about which red card to play (surely they are not going to be foolish enough to play a club – if they do exit with a club and set up your 4th club for a second club trick.) You have thrown the remaining 2 clubs from dummy on the 3rd and 4th round of spades. Now play a small diamond. If west has discarded a diamond play the J from dummy, however if west discarded a heart (particularly if he took time to think about it) put the 8 in. As the cards lie east wins with either the K or Q and then unblocks the Q (declarer discards a low heart from dummy) before exiting with the Q. South wins in hand and lays down the A (unblocking) and exits with a third round of diamonds (yes, on a bad day west will win and cash 2 club tricks, but in that case there was probably nothing you could have done to make 9 tricks). East wins and has to return a heart for you to make the the 4th diamond in dummy.


Well that is 9 tricks made in what seems to be a reasonable way, but how to make 10 even double dummy? I have no idea. 4 spades, 2 hearts, 2 diamonds and a club but how can you force the defenders (who are also playing double dummy) to give you a 10th trick? Perhaps I should send it up to one of the Bridge magazines as a prize problem.



Friday Evening, April 27th. Board 22

Never Give Up

Well that is a bit too strong, but I can remember one author giving advice on playing difficult contracts:

“If you cannot find a legitimate chance of making your contract, remember that you have two opponents who might help.”

This deal was one where that advice was worth remembering. The opening bid of 2 was a weak 2 which should show 5-9 HCP and a 6 card heart suit. Most players are reluctant to make a pre-emptive bid (weak twos are pre-emptive bids as are opening bids at the 3-level or higher) if they have a 4-card major in addition to their pre-emptive suit.


South passed the 2 bid (just 3 top tricks and some potential for ruffing). West also passed. What should North bid? 3NT might work if partner has both black suit aces, but that doubleton heart does not look very secure. I took a stab with 4 and my partner chose Roman Keycard Blackwood so I landed in 6. (He admitted afterwards that he should have simply raised to 5.)


East led the HQ and dummy went down. I thanked my partner and wondered where on earth the 12thtrick would come from. Worse still, those five hearts guaranteed that west would ruff the lead. West duly ruffed and played the K. What next? Well I won the A and played 6 rounds of diamonds and then unblocked the K before crossing to dummy with the A and cashing the A for a club discard.


Meanwhile east had played 3 small spades and a club and 5 hearts. The last two cards in dummy were the 9 and the 7. North had the 3 and the 10. Clearly east had the J and a spade honour. I led the 7 from table and west went into a long huddle. Clearly he had come down to the Q and K (otherwise he had nothing to think about, without the K that card had to be either with me or with east, and the lead of the K at trick 2 had just about announced that west had the Q.)


So what was the problem? Wind back to the bidding. Would east have opened 2 with 4 spades. Note that west knows that if that is the case, then they have missed a 9-card fit in spades. Of course, as west admitted afterwards there was also the issue of east needing 5HCP for his opening. I guess the issue of the west's 5-card spade holding coupled with the 2 opening persuaded west that east had started with 3 spades and so deduced that my 13th card was the Q. Away went the Q and so my  10 became my 12th trick for a completely undeserved slam.


Could east have done anything to wake his partner up? Well how about ditching the J under the K. Surely an experienced west would recognise that as a suit preference signal showing something in spades.


The moral, if there is one, is that you should not only count your partner's distribution but also his points. Bids that show a specific point range should be taken into account. Had I had the Q, and had west thrown the K then the responsibility for letting the slam through would have been 100% with east for opening 2 with only 3HCP. As it is I think most of the blame should go to west but east is not, in my opinion, entirely blameless.

Friday Evening, April 20th. Board 8

Somehow We Landed in 6NT

This is the title of an entertaining and instructive book from the prolific hand of David Bird. In it he covers a range of situations, both real and fictional, where a bid of 6NT is made and the consequences. If you have not read it, I can recommend it, not least because it will warn you about the dangers of doubling a slam contract that you are sure will go off.

Last night we had a deal which I think could have found a place in that book. I am going to pass lightly over the bidding, suffice to say that I finished up playing in 6NT as north.

At the table I received the lead of the A. Uncharacteristically I sat back and thought about it after thanking partner and assuring her that her bidding was perfectly OK.This is the gist of my thoughts.

I have 4 spade tricks and a heart trick so I need to make seven tricks from the minors. I cannot reasonably expect to make more than 3 club tricks, and even if the Q is well placed (it must be if I am to have any chance of making the contract) my best chance of a 4th diamond trick is if the diamonds break 3-3. However, if either defender has 4 cards in both minors, they are going to come under pressure when I play out the spades.

East continued with the Q to dummy's K. I led a spade to my my hand and cashed a second spade. Wanting to preserve my entries I then overtook my last high spade and cashed the 10. I noted that east first discarded a diamond and then discarded a club. Surely he has the J, so his failure to discard a heart strongly suggested that he had only started with 2 spades and the bare AQJ. So the next move was to come back to hand with the Q and then cash the AK, that confirmed that east had started with exactly 4 clubs and so had (well almost certainly) started with 4 diamonds. Now when I played the 4th club east was reluctant to let go of the J. That meant that made it easy, play the K and then play a second diamond. The Q drops and the J gives me the 12th trick.

Let me look at other possible opening leads.

Suppose that east leads the Q. I must take the K immediately and cannot rectify the count for a simple squeeze. However, look at what happens when I play four rounds of spades. East's best play is to discard the AJ! Because discarding a diamond or a club will give me a 4th trick in that minor suit. However, such a discard will guide me to the winning line,which is to lead the 2 towards my 9. West can win his 10 but now must give me back the lead and the 9 becomes my 12thtrick.

Does east have any lead that can cause problems? Not if declarer realizes that the contract is hopeless unless east has the A. If east leads anything other than a heart, declarer must lead a low heart from hand so that the K can be cashed then the play will revert one of the above lines.

You may wonder what would happen if east leads the Q and does not then discard the AJ on the third and fourth round of spades. Declarer will then make an over-trick! Whichever minor suit east shortens will setup 4 tricks for declarer in that suit and now if east still insists on keeping the A he will have to discard from the other minor setting up 4-more tricks for declarer.

From a Match

Your Bid?

You are playing in a match and pick up the south hand above. The player on your left passes as does your partner. The player on your right opens a natural 1, What do you bid? A great deal rides on this bid. If you can make 6 you need to bid it. You have 11 tricks on top (well there is a tiny possibility that all the remaining 5 spades are in west's hand – in view of the opening bid by east it is exceptionally unlikely that east has a5-card spade suit.). What do you need to make 12 tricks? Any one of the following in north's hand:

the Q

the K

two hearts and a spade (the10 would be nice)

three clubs to the Q, two trumps and the K with west

three clubs to the QJ and two trumps including the 10 (or the 10 being a singleton in either east or west hand and the 9 in dummy)

the 10 and the J with east having the Q

Those are just the ones I have spotted.My point is that there are many possible holding for north that will make 6 a virtual certainty. But is there any way to discover if partner has the right holding? Well not without going to make coffee and having a quick peep on the way back!

Seriously, you cannot find out. So what is the probability that partner has enough for you to make 6?

I got my software to deal 1000 deals with that south hand and  east having more than 10 high card points and a diamond opening bid. I put the results through an analysis program. There was one instance where you could only make 4 (a 5-0 trump split and partner without any helpful cards), 197 times you could only make 5, 167 times you could make 7 and the rest of the time you can make 6.

My conclusion is that you have only one sensible bid, an immediate 6, anything else will only help the defense.

Now have a look at the full deal. Only one pair in the match bid 6, and one pair got in a tangle and finished in 4NT by south which goes 2 off on the inevitable diamond lead (west got it right and led a high diamond – this is a case where leading 4th highest of your partner's suit would be a mistake.)

For the record, the 4NT bid only cost4 IMP, but the failure to bid 6 cost 13 IMP.

The moral is that if you can see 11 top tricks in your hand, bid to make 12. Your partner's hand will usually supply the 12th trick, and failing that, the defenders may manage to give you the 12th trick.

And a final thought, if you were playing pairs an east-west contract of 7 doubled only fails by 5 tricks and would be an excellent save against 6 (but not worth the risk at teams).