LOSING TRICK COUNT
(Developed by F. Dudley Courtenay, popularised by Maurice Harrison-Gray during 1930’s)
The Losing Trick Count used in conjunction with the standard point count, is a method of evaluating the trick taking potential of two combined hands playing in a suit contract. It primarily quantifies the ‘shape’ of the hand, and is merely a different but more formal way of adding points for length, singletons, or voids.
It should only be used when a fit has been established. Moreover I personally restrict its use to immediate responses to partner’s opening bid, and to opener’s re-bid if partner has supported the suit. At higher levels, trump solidity, cue-bids, controls bids, etc. are more valuable in determining the slam potential of hands.
(The examples that follow relate to a five-card major system, but the method is identical for four-card majors)
Mechanics
Benchmarks
Based on the normal Milton Point Count – minimum of 12 to open; minimum of 6 to respond (in any suit):
An opening hand will usually have a maximum of 7 losers.
A responding hand (in support, or in a change of suit situation) will have a maximum of 9 losers.
Counting Losers
- Only the first three cards in any suit can be losers
- Only the Ace, King, and Queen are winners
- ‘Droppable Honours’ count as losers (i.e. singleton King, or doubleton Queen)
However there are modifications to be made with three card or more suits containing the Queen.
- if the Q is in the trump suit (in support response) – no modification.
- if the Q is supported by the A, K, or J – no modification.
- Q109 – no modification.
- if the Q is not supported by any of the above – add ½ loser.
(Examples: Axxx – 2 losers; Kxx – 2 losers; Qxx – 2½ losers (unless trump suit); QJx – 2 losers; AQx – 1 loser; KQx – 1 loser; Kx – 1 loser; Qx – 2 losers; A – 0 losers; K – 1 losers).
Also opinions vary with AJ10. I would consider this to be a 1 loser suit.
Any ‘½ s’ are then rounded upwards – i.e. 6½ becomes 7.
Also beware of ace-less or king-less hands (I would add ½ loser for a hand with no ace and 1 loser for the rare hands with neither ace nor king).
It should be noted that the above is a basic guide to loser counting. In the fuller system, distinctions are made between balanced and non-balanced hands – but these are for the experts.
Examples (assume responding to five-card major 1♠ opener):
a)♠ K75b)♠ A754c)♠ K752d)♠ K752e)♠ K872
♥ A7♥ 6♥ A♥ K♥ A
♦ 9873♦ Q97653♦ K973♦ Q973♦ Q973
♣ 7532♣ Q4♣ 8742♣ 8742♣ J742
f)♠ 872
♥ K8
♦ Q764
♣ J742
a) Spades – 2 loser; Hearts – 1; Diamonds – 3 ; Clubs – 3: TOTAL – 9 losers.
b) Spades – 2 loser; Hearts – 1; Diamonds – 2½ ; Clubs – 2: TOTAL – 7 ½ (i.e. 8) losers.
c) Spades – 2 loser; Hearts – 0; Diamonds – 2; Clubs - 3: TOTAL – 7 losers.
d) Spades – 2 loser; Hearts – 1; Diamonds – 2½ ; Clubs – 3; No Aces – ½ TOTAL – 9 losers.
e) Spades – 2 loser; Hearts – 0; Diamonds – 2½ ; Clubs – 3: TOTAL – 7½ (i.e. 8) losers.
f) Spades – 3 loser; Hearts – 1; Diamonds – 2½ ; Clubs – 3: No Aces – ½ TOTAL - 10 losers.
Subtract From 18
Responder will add his known losers to opener’s assumed minimum (7), and subtract from 18. This gives the support level. For example, responder with 9 losers, adds to 7 (=16), subtracts total from 18 (18 – 16) = 2, so support at the ‘2’ level.
Take care with 7 loser support hands. Only bid direct to 4 if the hcp are minimal (i.e. a pre-emptive raise). With the same 7 losers and say a 13+ hand use your normal delayed game raise methods (change of suit; Jacoby; Baron etc.).
Responder will have based his support on an assumed 7 loser opening hand from partner. If opener has a better hand (i.e. less than 7 losers), he can raise partner’s support level:
1♠ - 2♠ (9 losers) – 4♠ (with a five loser hand).
Also if opener is able to support a new suit from responder, he should assume responder has a 9 loser hand (see example (e) below)
Looking at examples (a) – (f) above, responder should bid as follows.
a) – 2♠ (9 losers + assumed 7 losers = 16; 18 – 16 = 2).
b) – 3♠ (combined 15 losers). Standard limit bids would dictate only 2♠, but this doesn’t take account of the shape.
c) – 4♠ (only 9 high card points, but again shape would give a good play for 10 tricks).
d) – 2♠ (similar to (c), but the Q♦ has less trick taking potential than K♦, and aceless).
e) – 3♠ (combined 15 losers), whereas standard limit bids would dictate only 2♠.
f) – 2♠ . Ltc would indicate a limit of only 1♠ with 10 losers (10 + 7 = 17; 18 – 17 = 1), but you can’t really pass with a 6 count, and you have added a full loser for the ‘½’ loser (but don’t be surprised if 2♠ goes one off if opener has a minimum).
Other Examples
a)♠ AK962b)♠ AK962c)♠ AKQ32d)♠ AQ754e)♠ 7
♥ 7♥ 7♥ A643♥ 843♥ KQ74
♦ A854♦ A8542♦ 752♦ A53♦ AK9642
♣ Q52♣ A5♣ 9♣ K5♣ 73
♠ QJ84♠ QJ84♠ 8654♠ K942♠ 843
♥ Q852♥ Q852♥ K95♥ 5♥ A9632
♦ K♦ K♦ 8♦ K97642♦ 107
♣ J863♣ J863♣ A10862♣ 86♣ K54
f)♠ 72g)♠ 6h)♠ 6
♥ KQ74♥ AK843♥ AK843
♦ AK964♦ A9542♦ A9542
♣ 73♣ Q8♣ A8
♠ 843♠ J742♠ J742
♥ A9632♥ QJ72♥ QJ72
♦ 107♦ J♦ J
♣ K54♣ J752♣ J752
a) 1♠ - 2♠ (9 losers) - pass (½ loser added for ace-less hand); 9 + 7 = 16; 18 – 16 = 2♠. You should eventually lose one heart, one diamond, three clubs (unless the opposition are kind to you with the club suit).
b) 1♠ - 2♠ (9 losers) - 4♠ (5 losers): 9 + 5 = 14; 18 – 14 = 4♠. Similar to (a) but the slightly better club situation in opener’s hand gives rise to only 5 losers.
c) 1♠ - 3♠ (8 losers) - 4♠ (6 losers); 8 + 6 = 14; 18 – 14 = 4♠. Only a combined 20 count, but ltc. enables the excellent shape to be taken into account. Two diamond ruffs lead to ten tricks.
d) 1♠ - 4♠ (7 losers). Not a certainty. Also the bid makes it more difficult for the opposition to find their heart fit.
e) 1♦ - 1♥ - 4♥. North can support responder’s heart suit. He has a 5-loser hand (in support). Add to partner’s assumed 9 loser hand (the minimum to be able to respond) = 14. 18 – 14 = 4.
f) 1♦ - 1♥ - 3♥ - pass. North has a similar hand to (e) – same points, but with one loser more, is content to bid 3♥. South with nothing extra to his assumed 9 losers, passes.
g) 1♥ - 2♥ - pass. South has a nine loser hand, opener has a six loser hand, so nine tricks should be the limit (you will probably lose one spade, one diamond, two clubs.
h) 1♥ - 2♥ - 4♥. Similar to (g), but opener has a five loser hand, so 4♥. Using just limit bids you would not reach game.
With examples (c) (d) and (e) above, using pure limit-bids, you would probably not have reached game.
Other Uses
The ltc. can be used in response to partner’s overcall. Overcalls are assumed to be 8 loser hands, so partner judges the appropriate raise based on this. A disadvantage of this approach is that in the modern game, overcalls are becoming ultra-light. So only use after overcalls if your partner is disciplined in his overcalling methods.
Summary
The ltc. should be used as a guideline, particularly at lower levels in determining whether to raise to the two- or three-level, or as opener, whether to try for game (possibly via a trial bid). Don’t go to excesses with the ltc.
AFH