The ♣ suit looks formidable 

But maybe you can hold it to 9 tricks with 3 ♦ 's & 1 ♠ 

To think that you have to be a real optimist & have missed the point

Namely you haven't counted the hand

You have 14, dummy 9 & W has indicated 15/16

Leaving partner with 2 at best

Look again at that ♣ suit - it's time to cash out

Continue with K♦ & A♠ taking 3 tricks while you can

Obvious you say, but then it always seems more so in print

At the Table 5 from 9 Wests played in 3NT

1 made 12 on the lead of J♦ 

The other 4 had A♦ led, 3 made 11

Only 1 was held to 10 by the cash out play

Note that on this hand the details do not appear on the Web Site

What you see is a reconstruction from memory

The key cards are correct but not necessarily all the small cards

So I'm declarer sitting N

Looking at the hand I thought "Looks good for a ruffing play"

Aiming to ruff losing ♥ 's with A, K & J♠ , a touch of flamboyance

Using ♣ ruffs to access dummy

That's the way I played ending with 12 tricks

For a joint top of 94% with one other

Partner enquired if a slam was on with a trump lead

With the answer yes came the realisation that I hadn't taken the best line

Stopped thinking after seeing the flamboyant ruffing play

The first ♣ ruff was taken with 6♠ & the 2nd with 8♠ to avoid an overruff

In order to reach dummy another ♣ was ruffed with 9♠ 

Leaving only Q104♠  in dummy to draw trumps

Fortunately they were 2-2 but that's not much better than 40% chance

The better line is to play for ♣ 's to break 3-2 and ♠ 's not worse than 3-1

Both need to be right but the combined chance is better than 60%

So win Trick 1 with A♥ & Trick 2 with A♣ 

Trick 3 ruff a ♣ as E & W both follow showing ♣ 's to be 3-2

Trick 4 return to hand with a trump & Trick 5 ruff out the K♣ 

Trick 6 return to hand with a trump as both E & W follow

So trumps have broken 2-2

Now run the 4 ♣ winners discarding both ♦ 's from dummy & 2 ♥ 's

Then cross ruff for 13 tricks

If trumps had been 3-1 you only make 12 tricks

So has you see the slam is on with a trump lead

It was the last board but could do better

On a trump lead the ruffing play employed goes out the window

Being forced to think I believe I'd have found the right line

First reaction

Understandable if you are underwhelmed with the prospects

But wondering how you got into this doesn't help right now

Steady your mind and look for a plan

You can see 10 top tricks with the possibility of extra tricks in 2 suits

Each via a 50% finesse

You should also note there are only 2 entries to your hand 

So you can't afford to pressure opponents by first running ♥ 's

The ♠ suit 

A 5-3 fit & if E holds the Q♠ you may get 5 tricks to see you home

That requires the suit to break 3-2 a 68% chance

Chance of success is 0.5 x 68 = 34%

You can add in 3% for the possibility of E having singleton Q♠ 

The ♣ suit

A 4-3 fit & if E holds K♣ you may get 4 tricks to see you home

That requires the suit to break 3-3 a 36% chance

Chance of success 0.5 x 36 = 18%

So the way to go appears to be through the ♠ suit

However that ignores the possibility of combining chances in 2 suits

The Combination route

Start with A then K♠ - there is a 32% chance of dropping Q♠ single or doubleton

If that fails you are in the right hand to try the ♣ suit

Hoping to finesse twice against E

Combined chance is 44%

Unless I'm missing something that's the way to go

And on this occasion it works

The poor Grand Slam comes home

Comment on Play

You can't remember odds like that

Neither can I exactly but have a reasonable idea

You might look at it like this:

Do I want to put all my eggs in one basket

Failing or succeeding as quickly as possible

Or go through the options delaying the end result

Comment on bidding

2♠ Response by N

I don't see the N hand has having a +ve response 

Seeing it as a 2♦ negative/holding bid 

Intending to express the hand later in the bidding

Primarily because the ♠ suit has no quality

Make it KQJxx with 7HCP and a +ve response is fine by me

I gave the N hand to Brian Osmond to bid opposite a 2♣ opener

He responded 2♦ rejecting 2♠ because of poor suit quality

S would know immediately that N could not hold 3 Kings

But would still look for a slam, stopping at the 6 level

4NT by S

Blackwood even after NT already bid

Purely a matter for partnership agreement

Others may understand this as Quantitive

7NT by S 

Had a good day, high hopes of winning the Lottery

I don't recall the sequence that left me playing 3NT from the N hand

You could certainly say it was a gamble

But there it was

Tricks to spare in the minors but opponents might take the first 5 or 6

What do you make of the lead?

Clearly E doesn't have a better lead in ♥ 's

If the lead is 4th highest you can do the 11 - 7 calculation

Telling you that W has 1♠ higher than the 7♠ 

And W can do the same to place declarer with 1

A lead from a suit headed by A or Q is more likely than one from AQ

So what to play from dummy

With W possibly able to run the ♥ suit

Whatever you decide do it confidently without dithering

Go up with the K and if it holds you are home

But if W wins with the A what then?

A thoughtful W might conclude you are in a hurry because of weakness elsewhere

Switching to a ♥ even from a fractured suit to take you off

Play E for the Q but not A & finesse accordingly

W wins with A♠ & again may switch to a ♥ 

But declarer has a possible advantage from attempting to mislead W

By playing J from dummy implying that the 10 is with E & not with declarer

Painting a picture of E leading from a 5 card ♠ suit headed by Q10 

With fragmented ♥ 's W may then return a ♠ 

I tried the latter option, W won with A♠ then paused to think

Before thankfully returning the suit

Contract made + 2

So my line happened to work

But I'm certainly open to arguments that playing the K is a better line

Opening leads are often crucial to the end result

Here the 3 likeliest options are

The dynamic singleton 10♣ 

The 4th highest 3♠ 

The safe 10♥ 

Of the 8 leads the 10♣ was chosen 7 times & 3♠ once

Look at the end result:

When 10♣ was led 4 declarer's made 13 tricks, one 12, one 11 & one 9

On the 1 occasion 3♠ was led declarer made 9 tricks

So was the lead to blame for this significant difference?

Or did superior declarer play have a bearing?

I'm thinking the answer was neither

Let's take it that declarer covered the 10♣ with J or Q♣ 

And you see that the villains were the W's who then covered with K♣ 

Leading to 13 tricks for declarer

How one made 11 & one 12 is not so clear 

So why did those W's play the K♣ ?

Perhaps they have partners who regularly under lead an A 

Even when declarer's hand is known to be strong & unbalanced

I think not

Much more likely they have made a reflex play without thinking

After all you cover an honour with a higher honour don't you?

Well yes you do when you are winning the trick

Or when by so doing you can develop a later trick

But certainly not universally come what may

Including the lead card W can see 10 ♣ 's 

And should conclude that playing the K♣ can only benefit declarer

If declarer then continues with another ♣ from dummy W must again play low

Well done to pair 10 W - Lynda who must have withheld the K♣ 

And held declarer to 9 tricks

Going back to the lead 

On this occasion the lead in itself is not crucial

Including a previously unconsidered ♦ 

Declarer can always be held to 9 tricks

But the defense is most crucial if 10♣ is chosen

Thinking is key here

What do you know?

Firstly partner must have a fair hand

Make the simple calculation

You have 6, dummy has 11 & with an initial passed hand declarer has at most 11

So partner has at least 12

Secondly how many ♦ 's did partner start with?

You should have noticed that the 3♦ has not appeared

So unless declarer is practicing a deep deception partner started with 3

And is making the recommended return of the 7 from an original A73♦ 

Thirdly and most crucially what entries have you got?

None apart from K♦ 

Putting that all together what ♦ do you now play?

Not the K♦ since that means only 2 ♦ tricks

So looking for 5 ♦ tricks follow low maintaining communication with partner

Partner should also be thinking & take it you hold K♦ 

Winning trick 2 declarer runs 5 ♥ tricks

Your 2 discards must not include a ♦ 

Because you are hoping to make your remaining 4 ♦ 's

Partner must retain the assumed 3rd ♦ 

And depending on your discard systems may be able to communicate entries

However the most observant among you don't need those signals this time

Because you have been adding up Declarers points

5 in ♥ 's, 1 from J♦ 's & a further deduced 2 for the Q♦ - 8 so far

Set against the previously calculated maximum of 11

Hence partner holds the 2 outstanding Aces

Whatever declarer tries at Trick 8 partner will win 

Then should cash the other A before switching to the ♦ 

Your final trick tally is 5 in ♦ 's + 2 Aces & Decarer is 2 down

At the Table

Three times S played in 2NT on the ♦ lead, all made 9 tricks

It certainly looks like all 3 W's won the 2nd ♦ & lost communication

Turning a poor contract into a high scoring one for N/S

Tip

The necessary information may not always be as open to deduction as this one

But in general terms when:

Against a NT contract you've led 4th highest from a long suit with no outside entry

On the next round of the suit stop & at least consider communications

Before making the reflex play of covering an honour with a higher one